Which housing markets are most vulnerable in recession?

CHICAGO (NewsNation) — Interest rates have more than doubled over the past year, which has led to a slowdown in the housing market nationally.

A new report from real estate data company ATTOM Data Solutions highlighted a number of factors that make some metro areas more vulnerable to housing market declines in an economic downturn.

Its Special Housing Risk Report, for the second quarter of 2022, listed nearly 600 U.S. counties’ value decline, based on “home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment.”

The report showed that 33 of 50 counties most vulnerable to potential declines were located in New Jersey, Illinois and California.

Six counties around the Chicago metropolitan area, 13 throughout California, nine around New York City and three in the Philadelphia area are among the top 50 most vulnerable, according to the report.

Here are some of ATTOM’s most at-risk counties near metropolitan areas:

  • Kings County, NY (Brooklyn)
  • Richmond County, NY (Staten Island)
  • Philadelphia County, PA (Philadelphia)
  • Camden and Gloucester counties, NJ (Philadelphia)
  • Cook, Kane, Kendall, McHenry, and Will counties, IL (Chicago)
  • Lake County, IN (Chicago)
  • Solano County, CA (Sacramento)
  • Fresno, Kings and Madera counties, CA (Fresno)
  • Kern County, CA (Bakersfield)
  • San Bernardino County, CA (San Bernardino)

According to the report, in determining affordability, ATTOM looked at how much of the median household’s income would be required to buy a median-priced home in the market. The national average is 31.5%, but the data showed that in many of the riskiest markets, it was above 50%.

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According to the data, 25 of the 50 counties least vulnerable were in the South, and another 14 were in the Midwest.